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6/21/2009 - Emerged Markets

A few years ago the buzz word in nearly all investment circles was “emerging markets.” Investors were chasing returns by pumping money into all sorts of emerging market mutual funds and exchange traded funds and for a while, or so it seemed, you couldn’t go wrong with four of those countries: Brazil, Russia, India, and China. These “BRIC” countries were the epitome of the emerging markets and high returns, but there is just one problem – they have officially “emerged.”

For the first time in their history, the four BRIC nations held a summit this past week in Moscow. The goal of the meeting? To demonstrate that they have emerged by creating a larger voice, and forming a united front on global economic issues. The BRIC nations want a larger voice at the IMF – the International Monetary Fund – and they want to make sure the world is aware that they are “open for business.” At the summit they discussed everything from the global financial crisis, to dumping US Treasuries and buying IMF bonds, to making recommendations for a new reserve currency at some point in the future.

If you don’t believe that the BRICs have emerged, consider these facts: The four countries have roughly 42 percent of the world’s currency reserves, account for 15 percent of the $60.7 trillion global economy, and are responsible for more than half of the growth in the world’s GDP. Russia, not Saudi Arabia, is currently the world’s largest producer of oil. Based on nominal GDP, China’s economy ranks third in the world, Russia is eighth, Brazil is tenth, and India is twelfth. Contrast this with Australia in 14th place, South Korea in 15th, and Switzerland in the twenty-first position.

One of the topics at the summit concerns the value of the US Greenback. With so much of the BRIC reserves in US Treasuries, any weakening in the dollar means declining reserve values. A couple of the BRICs – Russia and China no less – have become increasingly more vocal about the possibility of creating a new global reserve currency, believing that too much dependence has been placed on the dollar.

At the summit, the BRIC nations did decide to dump some US Treasuries. The plan is for Brazil, Russia and India to dump some holdings in US Treasuries and with that money purchase some IMF bonds. The IMF has been strapped for cash, and the purchase of these bonds will give the IMF a bigger balance sheet to provide aid for developing nations that face a shortage of capital because of the global crisis. China is expected to purchase anywhere from $50 to $70 billion of these IMF bonds, and China has been issuing statements for over a year that they will gradually be diversifying out of US Treasuries.

The BRICs want to become a force to be reckoned with, and there is no indication that they won’t. They have emerged, but only time will tell how much of a global force they will eventually become.
 

Joseph “Big Joe” Clark is a Certified Financial Planner and the Managing Partner of the Financial Enhancement Group, LLC. He is a Registered Principal offering Securities through World Equity Group, Inc, member FINRA/SIPC. Registered Investment Advisor Services offered through World Equity Group, Inc.  Big Joe can be reached at bigjoe@yourlifeafterwork.com, or (765)-640-1524.

 
 
   

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